The demand of the earliest assessment reserve expa
2022-10-14- Detail
Morning review: reserve demand expanded, aluminum prices rebounded at the low level
Lun aluminum rebounded 0.28% to $1804 on Wednesday. It was used in the form of liquid under arthroscopy. Shanghai aluminum rose 0.14% to 14180 yuan, and the spot rose 30 to 14480 yuan. It is mainly the strong demand for aluminum in China that supports the rebound of aluminum at a low level, the spot in some regions is tight, and the rising water in Wuxi and other places reappears. However, we still maintain the judgment that the supply expansion pattern remains unchanged. At present, it is only a phased tension, and the current price difference reaches 280 yuan/ton, which is related to the increase of in transit inventory caused by the huge consumption in the early stage of production in Northwest China and the transportation problems in Northwest China, It is not fully understood that the two occupy the market. The production volume of phase I has been completed and put into operation is about 400000 tons. In the later stage, the production and supply will be straightened out, and the spot premium may decline. In the short term, under the prospect of the expansion of the demand and procurement demand of the 11 yellow surface chrome plated gold peripheral warehouse, the aluminum premium may still remain high. In terms of economy, the uncertainty of U.S. fiscal policy and monetary policy has limited the rise of aluminum price. Last week, the decision of the Federal Reserve not to reduce bond purchase made investors such as aluminum cautious. The domestic current upside down also made the demand for selling insurance weak, and the transaction was relatively sluggish. In the medium and long term, there is still room for excess to lead to price decline. The bearish thinking remains the same, and it is mainly short-term wait-and-see or arbitrage
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